Contents
Preface
1. Origin of Greenhouse Gas Issue 1
2. Literature Review 5
2.1 What is CGE Model? 5
2.2 CGE Analysis on Carbon Tax Effect Worldwide 7
2.3 CGE Analysis on Carbon Tax Effect in China 9
2.4 Current Multi-Regional CGE Models 11
2.4.1 MMRF-Green Model 11
2.4.2 GTAP-E Model 17
3. Responses to Current Climate Change 23
3.1 International Responses 23
3.2 Nation and Regional Political Responses 28
3.3 Responses from Multinational Cooperations 30
3.4 China’s Responses 33
4. Will China’s Energy Resource Tax Policy Work? 41
4.1 Model Structure 41
4.2 Data and Scenario 48
4.2.1 Regional Division 48
4.2.2 Industry Classification 50
4.2.3 Scenarios 51
4.3 Analysis Results 52
4.3.1 National Level Effect 52
4.3.2 Regional Level Effect 56
4.3.3 Industry Indicator 60
4.4 A Dynamic Extension 62
4.4.1 Model Extension 62
4.4.2 Data Resource and Scenario Setup 63
4.4.3 Results 64
4.5 Conclusion 69
5. What Will Happen When the World Works Together? 71
5.1 Model Structure 71
5.2 Data and Scenario 81
5.2.1 Regional Division 81
5.2.2 Industry Classification 82
5.2.3 Scenarios 84
5.3 Analgsis Results 86
5.3.1 Changes in EV and CO2 Emission Reductions in China 86
5.3.2 China’s Industry Changes 88
5.3.3 Change of Household EV and CO2 Reduction of World Regions 88
5.3.4 Industrial Output in World Regions 91
5.4 Conclusion 100
6. Concluding Remarks 103
6.1 Simulation Model Construction 103
6.2 Analysis for China 104
6.3 Analysis for the World 106
6.4 Conclusion 106
Reference 107
Appendix 111
Model 1： One National， Multi-Region， Static Model 112
Model 2： Multi-National， Multi-Region， Static Model 130
Model 3： One National， Multi-Region， Dynamic Model 196
Acknowledgment 212
Tables and Charts
Fig.2.1 Household Demand in MMRF-Green 12
Fig.2.2 Production Structure in MMRF-Green besides Electricity Sector 13
Fig.2.3 Production Structure in MMRF-Green Electricity Sector 14
Fig.2.4 Creation of Capital Goods in MMRF-Green 15
Fig.2.5 GTAP-E Production Structure 19
Fig.2.6 GTAP-E Capital-Energy Composite Structure 19
Fig.2.7 GTAP-E Government Purchases 20
Fig.2.8 GTAP-E Household Private Purchases 21
Fig.4.1 Production Structure 42
Fig.4.2 Household Activities 43
Fig.4.3 Government Activities 44
Fig.4.4 Export Structure 45
Fig.4.5 Import Structure 46
Fig.4.6 CO2 Reduction and Energy Intensity Rate of Change 54
Fig.4.7 National MAC under Different Scenarios 55
Fig.4.8 Regional GDP Rate of Change 57
Fig.4.9 Regional Household Utility Change 57
Fig.4.10 Per Capita Household Utility Change 58
Fig.4.11 Regional Petroleum and Natural Gas Mining Industry Output Reduction 59
Fig.4.12 Regional Coal Mining Industry Output Reduction 60
Fig.4.13 Industry Output Rate of Change 61
Fig.4.14 Regional Investment Rate of Change 66
Fig.4.15 Regional Household Consumption Rate of Change 66
Fig.4.16 Regional GRP Rate of Change 67
Fig.4.17 National GDP Rate of Change 67
Fig.4.18 Regional Coal Mining Output Rate of Change 68
Fig.4.19 Regional Oil and Gas Mining Output Rate of Change 69
Fig.5.1 Production Structure 72
Fig.5.2 Household Activities 72
Fig.5.3 Government Activities 73
Fig.5.4 Export Structure 73
Fig.5.5 Import Structure 73
Fig.5.6 Production Structure for World Region 74
Fig.5.7 Private Sector Activities for World Region 76
Fig.5.8 Government Activities for World Region 77
Fig.5.9 Export Structure for World Region 78
Fig.5.10 Import Structure for World Region 79
Fig.5.11 China’s Regional EV Change 86
Fig.5.12 China Regional CO2 Emission Reduction Rate of Change 87
Fig.5.13 China’s Industry Output Rate of Change 89
Fig.5.14 World Region EV Change 90
Fig.5.15 World CO2 Emission Reduction Rate under Different Scenarios 91
Fig.5.16 Industry Output Rate of Change of “OCN” Area 92
Fig.5.17 Industry Output Rate of Change of “JPN” Area 93
Fig.5.18 Industry Output Rate of Change of “GCA” Area 94
Fig.5.19 Industry Output Rate of Change of “IND” Area 95
Fig.5.20 Industry Output Rate of Change of “ROA” Area 96
Fig.5.21 Industry Output Rate of Change of “RUS” Area 97
Fig.5.22 Industry Output Rate of Change of “USA” Area 98
Fig.5.23 Industry Output Rate of Change of “EU27” Area 99
Fig.5.24 Industry Output Rate of Change of “ROW” Area 100
Table 3.1 Details about Each COP Conference 23
Table 4.1 Regional Division Code 48
Table 4.2 Reclassified Commodity Sectors 50
Table 4.3 Scenario Setup 52
Table 4.4 National Level Indexes 53
Table 4.5 Regional Industry Output Rate of Change in the Year 2012 65
Table 5.1 World’s Regional Division 82
Table 5.2 Reclassified Commodity Sectors 83
Table 5.3 Reduction Target for Developed Countries 85
Table 5.4 Scenario Setup 85
Picture 4.1 Region Code for 8 Division Regions in China 48
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